Pair #12478

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MPLU

Will Marcus Plunkett win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marcus Plunkett
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1883

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marcus Plunkett wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MPLU

The Open Championship: Will Marcus Plunkett finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marcus Plunkett
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 330

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marcus Plunkett finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -72.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -76.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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