Pair #12476

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MPLU

The Open Championship: Will Marcus Plunkett finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marcus Plunkett
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 330

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marcus Plunkett finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MPLU

The Open Championship: Will Marcus Plunkett make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marcus Plunkett
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 314

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marcus Plunkett has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -95.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500 + ~$0.0089 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.02% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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