Pair #12474

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JNIC

The Open Championship: Will James Nicholas make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: James Nicholas
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1399

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If James Nicholas has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JAN

Will James Nicholas lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: James Nicholas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2173

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules

If James Nicholas is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.7330 + ~$0.0140 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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