Pair #12472

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-DHOW

The Open Championship: Will David Howard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: David Howard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 728

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Howard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-DHOW

The Open Championship: Will David Howard make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: David Howard
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 17093

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Howard has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -82.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0052 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -86.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue