Pair #12471

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-ADEC

Will Alejandro De Castro Piera win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alejandro De Castro Piera
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 12818

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro De Castro Piera wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ADEC

The Open Championship: Will Alejandro De Castro Piera finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alejandro De Castro Piera
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 383

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro De Castro Piera finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -92.37% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -96.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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