Pair #12470

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-ADEC

Will Alejandro De Castro Piera win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alejandro De Castro Piera
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 12818

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro De Castro Piera wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-ADEC

The Open Championship: Will Alejandro De Castro Piera make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro De Castro Piera
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 262

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro De Castro Piera has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0103 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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