Pair #12461

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-LGRI

The Open Championship: Will Lev Grinberg finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Lev Grinberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 304

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lev Grinberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LGRI

The Open Championship: Will Lev Grinberg make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Lev Grinberg
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 241

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lev Grinberg has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0127 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.53% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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