Pair #12458

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-DDUV

The Open Championship: Will David Duval finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: David Duval
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2137

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Duval finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-DDUV

The Open Championship: Will David Duval finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: David Duval
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 854

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Duval finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -19.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -23.63% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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