Pair #12453

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-AFIT

The Open Championship: Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alex Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5700

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-AFIT

The Open Championship: Will Alex Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alex Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 325

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Fitzpatrick has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6400 + ~$0.0190 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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