Pair #12452

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-AFIT

The Open Championship: Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alex Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4098

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-AFIT

The Open Championship: Will Alex Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alex Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 325

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Fitzpatrick has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4300 + ~$0.0285 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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