Pair #12449

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-AFIT

The Open Championship: Will Alex Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alex Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 325

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Fitzpatrick has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-AFIT

Will Alex Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alex Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 44624

YES ask: 0.0140
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0140

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.3140 + ~$0.0157 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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