Pair #12434

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-NKAT

Will Naoyuki Kataoka win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Naoyuki Kataoka
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3894

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naoyuki Kataoka wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-NKAT

The Open Championship: Will Naoyuki Kataoka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Naoyuki Kataoka
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 308

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naoyuki Kataoka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -85.48% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -89.71% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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