Pair #1243

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 20451

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2175602

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:38Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major tournament (it is a regular PGA Tour event), so winning it does not imply winning a major. Neither direction holds.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -23.63% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -27.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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