Pair #12429

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BHOR

The Open Championship: Will Billy Horschel finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2865

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BHOR

The Open Championship: Will Billy Horschel make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 849

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5600 + ~$0.0213 est. fees
Days to maturity: 16
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue