Pair #12425

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-DCLA

The Open Championship: Will Darren Clarke finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Darren Clarke
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 327

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Darren Clarke finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-DCLA

The Open Championship: Will Darren Clarke make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Darren Clarke
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 233

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Darren Clarke has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900 + ~$0.0154 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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