Pair #12420

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-GWOO

The Open Championship: Will Gary Woodland finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1185

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Gary Woodland finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-GWOO

The Open Championship: Will Gary Woodland make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1234

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Gary Woodland has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4300 + ~$0.0252 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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