Pair #1241

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7768

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2175602

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:38Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship does not require leading after Round 2 — a player can win from behind. And leading after Round 2 does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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