Pair #12408

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-NTAY

The Open Championship: Will Nick Taylor finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 280

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Taylor finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-NTAY

The Open Championship: Will Nick Taylor make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1446

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Taylor has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0259 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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