Pair #12403

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JSVE

The Open Championship: Will Jesper Svensson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jesper Svensson
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 467

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jesper Svensson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JSVE

The Open Championship: Will Jesper Svensson make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jesper Svensson
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1148

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jesper Svensson has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900 + ~$0.0226 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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