Pair #1240

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 625

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 5 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6146824

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:38Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Valspar Championship are completely independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9910
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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