Pair #12392

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JSUB

The Open Championship: Will Jackson Suber finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jackson Suber
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2511

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jackson Suber finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JSUB

The Open Championship: Will Jackson Suber make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jackson Suber
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 640

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jackson Suber has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100 + ~$0.0243 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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