Pair #1239

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 844

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6146824

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:38Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valspar Championship are completely independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8110
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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