Pair #12385

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 463676

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan L. Smith wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JSMI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2367

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0660 + ~$0.0048 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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