Pair #12384

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11225

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0080

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JSMI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2367

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -77.84% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0680 + ~$0.0047 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -82.07% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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