Pair #12383

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JSMI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2367

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JSMI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 951

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -90.63% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0138 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -94.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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