Pair #12376

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JPOS

The Open Championship: Will J.T. Poston finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.T. Poston
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2210

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.T. Poston finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JPOS

The Open Championship: Will J.T. Poston finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.T. Poston
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3864

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.T. Poston finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -93.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0132 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -97.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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