Pair #12370

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JPAR

The Open Championship: Will John Parry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2921

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Parry finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JPAR

The Open Championship: Will John Parry make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1704

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Parry has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5000 + ~$0.0207 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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