Pair #1235

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7768

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6146824

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:18Z

Reasoning: These are entirely independent events at different tournaments. No logical relationship exists in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9710
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue