Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-MFIT
Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7768
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MFIT
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6146824
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:18Z
Reasoning: These are entirely independent events at different tournaments. No logical relationship exists in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9710
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A