Pair #12346

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MMCC

The Open Championship: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 778

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew McCarty finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MMCC

The Open Championship: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 506

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew McCarty finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -80.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0095 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -84.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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