Pair #12339

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JKNA

The Open Championship: Will Jake Knapp finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1645

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jake Knapp finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JKNA

The Open Championship: Will Jake Knapp finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1543

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jake Knapp finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -83.33% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0124 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -87.56% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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