Pair #12332

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-KKIT

The Open Championship: Will Kurt Kitayama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Kurt Kitayama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7729

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kurt Kitayama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-KKIT

The Open Championship: Will Kurt Kitayama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Kurt Kitayama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 818

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kurt Kitayama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300 + ~$0.0196 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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