Pair #12327

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MKIM

The Open Championship: Will Michael Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 10030

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MKIM

The Open Championship: Will Michael Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3552

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -87.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0118 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -91.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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