Pair #12321

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-NHOJ

Will Nicolai Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8843

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-NHOJ

The Open Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 268

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -90.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1080 + ~$0.0070 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -94.57% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue