Pair #12320

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-NHOJ

The Open Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 268

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-NHOJ

The Open Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 807

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300 + ~$0.0187 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.13% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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