Pair #12316

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8025

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0080

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RGER

The Open Championship: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 224

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -88.15% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0980 + ~$0.0064 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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