Pair #12315

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RGER

The Open Championship: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 224

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RGER

The Open Championship: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 743

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -92.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0169 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -96.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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