Pair #12311

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-WCLA

Will Wyndham Clark lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 55430

YES ask: 0.0210
NO ask: 0.9820
Last: 0.0210

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-WCLA

The Open Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 308

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1LEAD is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP5 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -84.14% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0820 + ~$0.0075 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -88.37% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue