Pair #1230

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 19801

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 38279

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:18Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so finishing top 5 there has no bearing on winning a major. And winning a major does not imply finishing top 5 at the Valspar.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -61.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -65.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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