Pair #123

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNBAWEST-26-DEN

Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Championship?

Series: KXNBAWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1310279

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN

Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8493

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: Denver's NFL record and Denver's NBA Western Conference championship are different sports with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -56.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -61.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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