Pair #12284

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-AAYO

Will Angel Ayora Fanegas lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Angel Ayora Fanegas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 17377

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Angel Ayora Fanegas is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-AAYO

The Open Championship: Will Angel Ayora Fanegas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Angel Ayora Fanegas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1311

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Angel Ayora Fanegas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -91.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1150 + ~$0.0077 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -95.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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