Pair #12282

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-AAYO

Will Angel Ayora Fanegas win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Angel Ayora Fanegas
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 127166

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Angel Ayora Fanegas wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-AAYO

The Open Championship: Will Angel Ayora Fanegas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Angel Ayora Fanegas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1512

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Angel Ayora Fanegas finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0480 + ~$0.0035 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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