Pair #12277

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 714

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 314

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1TOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): N/A
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0243 est. fees
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue