Pair #12273

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 9297

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 314

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.4700 + ~$0.0247 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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