Pair #12272

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 143762

YES ask: 0.0350
NO ask: 0.9720
Last: 0.0350

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 714

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1LEAD is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP5 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1520 + ~$0.0122 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue