Pair #12271

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 143762

YES ask: 0.0350
NO ask: 0.9720
Last: 0.0350

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 314

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1LEAD is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.49% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2620 + ~$0.0163 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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