Pair #12266

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-BCAU

Will Bud Cauley win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 264814

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0040

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bud Cauley wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-BCAU

The Open Championship: Will Bud Cauley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2150

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bud Cauley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP5 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.14% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0370 + ~$0.0029 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.37% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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