Pair #12260

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-BCAU

Will Bud Cauley lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 15045

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0060

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Rules

If Bud Cauley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BCAU

The Open Championship: Will Bud Cauley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 941

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bud Cauley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -84.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0052 est. fees
Days to maturity: 16
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -88.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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