Pair #12254

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PREE

Will Patrick Reed lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11938

YES ask: 0.0120
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0120

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 442

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1LEAD is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP5 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -92.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1290 + ~$0.0080 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -96.83% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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