Pair #1225

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 40878

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 625

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 5 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:21:18Z

Reasoning: If Fitzpatrick leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top 1, which is within the top 5. The reverse does not hold — top 5 does not mean he is the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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