Pair #12249

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3952

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 340

YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5500 + ~$0.0234 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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